China's Cars Come in Green: Dispatch from the Shanghai Auto Show

by Alex Pasternack, New York, NY on 04.21.07

The simple fact that global automakers are throwing everything they have into two auto shows spaced just months apart speaks volumes about the former Bicycle Kingdom's appetite for the car. That the second show, starting in Shanghai on Earth Day, has gone eco-friendly is an acknowledgment of just how unhealthy that appetite could continue to be -- and a reminder of China's great opportunity to leapfrog to sustainable technologies, integrating green into its growth from the get-go. What's not helping the situation are low gas prices, which are controlled by the government (in Beijing, where over 1000 new cars hit the streets a day, a gallon of 93 octane gasoline costs a paltry $2.30). What is helping -- in spite of the upper class and government penchant for SUVs and luxury sedans -- is an ongoing push for small cars. An auto consumption tax introduced last year for instance, slashed taxes on low-emission vehicles and raised taxes on high-emission vehicles. In general, too, China's economical car culture remains stuck on smaller, more efficient models. Car manufacturers are listening. Among the show's highlights:

The newest Chevy Volt, Chinese hybrids and more below the fold...

Diesel: Volkswagon's Polo BlueMotion: as we reported earlier, this diesel gets 62 mpg average fuel consumption with 102g/km CO2 output, making it one of the cleanest internal combustion vehicles in the world. Though available in Europe, the BlueMotion (pictured above) is not yet sold in the U.S. due to current emission regulations. (VW's other greenery includes the Magotan, otherwise known as the Passat, which features an economical and low-emission engine, along with their highly efficient TFSI engine, to be manufactured in China.)

Fuel-cell: GM will show off its latest version of the sweet hybrid/electric Chevrolet Volt, with a fifth-generation E-Flex fuel cell stack; the prototype is more advanced than the one shown in Detroit three months ago, no longer relying upon a small gasoline engine as a backup. Honda will show its FCX Concept Car, its new fuel-cell vehicle, alongside its experimental Home Energy Station, which would provide hydrogen home refueling. Shanghai Automotive Industries Corp. (SAIC) will display a fuel-cell sedan with a fourth-generation stack, peak power output of 60 kW / 80.5 hp and a top speed of 150 km/h / 93 mph.

Hybrid: Like Chivas or the ubiquitous Audi A6, Buick is loved in China, and soon it will repay that love with its first ever hybrid model. The hybrid LaCrosse, which will be available by 2008, will not be sold in the U.S., not yet. Even sexier -- but less of a sure thing -- is Buick's new concept car, the gullwing Riviera, which has been outfitted with the same hybrid system set to be used in the LaCrosse. Meanwhile, Ford Motor Co.'s 52 models at the show will include its hybrid SUV, the Ford Escape; the Prius, already available in China, will show, alongside some hybrid Lexuses, like the LS600h L. China's first domestic hybrid cars come from Cherry and Roewe (or Rong Wei). The latter, a subsidiary of SAIC, has hybridized a Rover 75 (the company recently bought UK's MG Rover). Chery's hybrid is based on its A3 supermini. As a so-called mild hybrid, it is not able to run in electric-only mode, but the extra help given by the electric motor allows for fuel consumption of up to a claimed 94.2 mpg. Changan has a new hybrid gasoline-electric minivan. Meanwhile, SAIC is investing one billion yuan (US$129 million) in cleaner, more energy efficient vehicle technologies. The company hopes to produce 50,000 electric vehicles of various types by 2010, about 95 percent of which will be hybrids.

Natural gas: VW's EcoFuel Touran tall wagon is fueled by compressed natural gas, reducing CO2 emissions by twenty percent and NOx and CO emissions by eighty percent. Through a joint venture with Volkswagen, SAIC is aiming to produce 500 Touran hybrids before the 2008 Beijing Olympics.

Flex fuel: Honda's Fit FFV, runs on either 100% ethanol or a wide range of ethanol-gasoline fuel mixtures; the company has been producing and selling this in Brazil since the end of 2006.

Two big questions remain: considering that China's love for fuel efficient cars has more to do with wallets than pollution, how will domestic and foreign car makers (along with the government) encourage more advanced (and slightly costlier) fuel efficient vehicles? The Prius may be available in Beijing, but the only one I've seen is on a billboard.

Second, and related to the first: will foreign automakers transfer their green technology to their Chinese partners? As the New York Times reports:

Multinationals face repeated demands from Chinese joint venture partners to share the most advanced technology available. Katsumi Nakamura, president and chief executive of Dongfeng Motor, a joint venture in Hubei province between Nissan Motor and the Dongfeng Group of China, said that the Dongfeng side had tried to negotiate an agreement that would require the sharing of the latest technology.

But at Nissan's insistence, the final pact only calls for the sharing of "appropriate" technology. There may not be enough demand in China for advanced technologies like hybrid engines to justify the cost of setting up production in China that duplicate those in Japan, Nakamura warned.

Auto executives are reluctant to mention the illegal copying of technology in China, a problem that discouraged Chrysler from even trying to build minivans in China in the 1990s.

But, as Larry Burns, GM vice president of R&D, put it, “It’s in the best interest of the United States for China to diversify its energy resources.”

For cars, black is still the color of choice in China these days -- it's the best way to conceal all that stuff that comes out of the cars. But as long as the car obsession continues to grow -- and as long as China wants its economic growth to be sustainable -- green will need to be the new black.

Will A Hybrid Car Really Pay Off?

by Todd Kaho
06/10/2008

It's true that hybrids cost more than regular vehicles. This prompts many to wonder if the extra cost for these high efficiency cars is worth it, and in fact if the difference can be offset over time by the cash saved from buying less fuel. While plenty of generalizations have been made on this in recent years, the concept of payback for a hybrid's incremental cost involves many variables and can only be answered on a case-by-case basis. Green Car's research shows that a realistic answer is not so simple and boiling this down into a simple chart is misleading ... so we're not going to do that. Instead, we're going to do this the right way and help you come up with a valid payback factor for the hybrid you may be considering.

You need to know that crunching the numbers involves some elements that are moving targets. For example, higher gasoline prices work to shorten the number of miles needed for payback. Changing government incentives mean that calculations made today may be different than the realities of calculations made a few months down the road. And let's not forget that the retail price of hybrids also appears to be in play as some dealers tack thousands of dollars onto a hybrid's suggested retail price because of high demand.

Still, the basic equation for determining a hybrid's breakeven point is straightforward. It begins by identifying the combined city/highway mpg number for a hybrid and that of its closest conventional counterpart. These mpg figures can be found online at www.fueleconomy.gov. Once armed with these numbers you can figure each vehicle's operating cost per mile based on current fuel prices.

To do so, simply divide the price of fuel (such as $4.00 per gallon) by a vehicle's combined mpg. As an illustration, a Honda Civic Hybrid would pencil out as follows, assuming the above gas cost: $4.00 ÷ 42 mpg = $0.095 (9 ½ cents) per mile operating cost. If a Civic EX was used as a conventional comparison, this would pencil out at $4.00 ÷ 29 mpg = $0.14 (14 cents) per mile. So, the hybrid variant would cost $0.045 (4 ½ cents) less for each mile driven. Placed in these terms, it's enlightening that even at 42 mpg, you're burning nearly a buck's worth of gasoline every 10 miles you drive. Ouch.

Next, determine the manufacturer's suggested retail price (MSRP) for the models you're comparing. The Honda Civic Hybrid MSRP is $22,600 and the standard Civic EX is $18,710, with a differential of $3,890. To find the projected mileage to a breakeven point - where the increased fuel efficiency offsets the cost of a hybrid premium - the difference in price between the hybrid model and an identical conventionally powered model is divided by the savings per mile. In the case of the Honda Civic, this figures out this way: $3,890 (cost difference) ÷ $0.045 (4 ½ cents per mile savings) = 86,444 miles. So, at least in theory, the extra cost of a Honda Civic hybrid in this scenario would be offset in just over 86,000 miles of driving if gas prices are $4.00 a gallon.

Of course, federal incentives exist for many hybrid models and this can make a big difference in payback calculations. The Civic Hybrid is currently eligible for a federal tax credit of $1,050, which changes the cost differential between comparative models and results in a payback mileage factor of 63,111 miles if purchased now. However, tax credits are phased out according to specific criteria and disappear when an automaker sells 60,000 hybrids. For example, the Honda tax credit is reduced to $525 on July 1, 2008 and goes away completely on January 1, 2009. The substantial $3,150 tax credit made available for Toyota's Prius when the federal incentive program began has now gone away completely for this model, and in fact all Toyota/Lexus hybrids, because of this automaker's successful hybrid sales. Current information on available credits for specific hybrid models can be found at http://www.fueleconomy.gov/Feg/tax_hybrid.shtml.

These fundamental calculations can be used to determine the theoretical payback for any hybrid model. If the basics are what you're looking for then you're done here. But there are more 'wild card' factors to consider, so if you're inclined to explore how other influences can weigh in, then read on.

BEYOND THE BASICS
If all this sounds simple, rest assured it's not. Finding direct hybrid/gasoline model comparisons can be tricky since many of the features that come standard on hybrid models may not be offered on their gasoline powered counterparts. Auto manufacturers often sweeten the deal on hybrids with additional content to soften a hybrid's higher price. These extra features cost the manufacturer much less than the added retail value they bring to the consumer, so this content serves to take some of the sting out of the additional money being paid for expensive hybrid technology.

The challenge in identifying a direct hybrid comparison is illustrated by the Toyota Camry. When you add in the engine options and trim levels, Toyota lists 11 different Camry styles and none have the exact mix of options and components as the Camry Hybrid. Also, while a singular example, it should also be noted that Toyota's Prius hybrid has no direct basis for comparison since that body style is offered only as a hybrid.

Still other factors cloud the issue. Driving habits present a significant wild card in this payback equation. Fuel economy can easily differ by 5 mpg or more on high fuel economy vehicles with differences in driving style. Drive with fuel economy in mind and you may well cut the miles to achieving breakeven in half.

Other incentives that influence breakeven are not so obvious, like the ability for solo drivers to use high occupancy vehicle (carpool) lanes in some states. While this incentive can save hundreds of hours of behind-the-wheel time in heavily congested cities over the course of a year - a real quality of life advantage - it also offers tangible financial benefits since cutting commuting time saves fuel, which also saves cash. A case could certainly be made for factoring the dollar value of fuel saved into the payback equation. But again, that's a wild card that must be calculated on a case-by-case basis. Plus, those counting on this must keep in mind that the HOV benefit could go away for new hybrid purchases once quotas are reached, as has happened now in California.

One major consideration when shopping for a new hybrid is the length of time you plan to keep the vehicle. If you're a short-term buyer, then the math to breakeven may seem impossible to achieve. The big variable here is the resale or residual value when you sell the car. A hybrid will likely retain much of the original premium you paid due to high demand, particularly if you sell it or trade it in after only a few years. So, that $3,000 or $4,000 premium you paid for a hybrid could still add $2,000 or more to the car's value used, meaning you may only need to save $1,000 or so in gas - or consume 250 gallons at $4 per gallon - to hit breakeven.

Finally, there's the subject of battery replacement cost that could (or should) be factored into the equation. While hybrids are new enough so actual battery replacement costs are generally unknown, it's projected that a new battery pack will likely fall in the $2,000 or so range when aging hybrids get to the point where replacement is needed.

When will a hybrid pay for itself? We like to think the day you drive it off the lot. Being an early adopter of environmentally positive technology, reducing oil dependency, and creating less pollution have their own rewards. The substantial savings realized at the pump every time a new hybrid is filled up also provides real and immediate financial gain. With all this and rising gas prices that are already driving up the resale value of efficient smaller cars - a trend that will surely benefit hybrid values as well - the answer to those questioning whether a hybrid will pay off seems to be getting clearer every day.

Can You Convert to Natural Gas?

by Bill Siuru
07/21/2008

Are you considering converting your car or light truck to run on compressed natural gas (CNG)? Besides being less expensive on a gasoline gallon equivalent (GGE) basis, CNG is cleaner burning and, unlike petroleum, doesn't come from unfriendly places. However, finding and operating a natural gas vehicle (NGV) is more challenging in the U.S. than in most of the rest of the world, where about 8 million light duty NGVs are in operation.

The only light-duty NGV sold by an original equipment manufacturer here is the Honda GX. All others are retrofitted installations for select vehicles that use GM's 6.0-liter engine and Ford's 4.6, 5.4, and 6.8-liter engines. Drivers in other countries have many more choices. One of the challenges for CNG engine system manufacturers in the U.S. is the time and expense to achieve certification for its conversion systems - as much as $200,000 or more per engine family. That severely limits our choices. Non-certified retrofit systems, allowed in other countries with less strict vehicle emission and safety rules, are sold here on the Internet.

Strict U.S. EPA rules cover the manufacture, sale, and installation of alternative fuel conversion systems. Even more stringent California Air Resources Board (CARB) rules apply in California and other states that have adopted these rules. These regulations do not allow consumers to install retrofit kits themselves. EPA considers non-certified installations as representing "tampering with a federally approved emission control system," an act punishable by a substantial fine.

Plus, EPA and CARB certified engine conversion systems are not sold to untrained or unapproved installers. There are only four SVM (Small Volume Manufacturers) of retrofit systems offering EPA certified systems - BAF Technologies, Baytech Corp., FuelTek Conversion Corp., and Impco Technologies - and only two of these are CARB certified. See www.ngvamerica.org/pdfs/marketplace/mp.analyses.ngvs-a.pdf for a listing of light duty conversions.

Before converting a vehicle to CNG you really must make sure you can conveniently refuel it. While there are about 800 CNG fueling locations in the U.S., not all are open to the public and one may not be located near you. If the fueling infrastructure is sparse in your region, this could become an important consideration if you plan to make a trip out of your locale where CNG fueling stations might be difficult to find. This is less of a problem for bi-fuel conversions that can run on either natural gas or gasoline. A listing of CNG locations can be found at www.eere.energy.gov/afdc/fuels/natural_gas_stations.html.

There is another option. You can get around the lack of public refueling by installing a home fueling device like the FuelMaker 'Q' and Phill, also from FuelMaker. These are 'time-fill' fueling devices that don't store CNG, but rather compress and refuel directly from a household's gas supply. With both of these devices fueling is done overnight or whenever a vehicle is idle.

The cost to convert to CNG can range from about $12,500 to $22,500 depending on the vehicle, engine, size of CNG tanks needed, and who does the converting. The greatest expense is for the CNG tanks, and the more capacity and number of tanks, the more expensive the conversion. While this may be daunting for many consumers, fleet users - like taxi companies and delivery services - can often justify the expense because of the fuel savings amortized over many miles. The FuelMaker 'Q' refueling appliance costs just under $10,000 plus installation and the Phill is priced at about $4500 plus installation.

Tax credits, rebates, and other incentives can offset the cost of a conversion. For example, the federal Energy Policy Act of 2005 includes an income tax credit that offsets 50 to 80 percent of the incremental cost of purchasing a new dedicated NGV. It applies to the cost of converting an existing vehicle with an EPA- or CARB-certified retrofit system. In addition, there may be state tax credits. Home CNG refueling devices may qualify for additional federal and state tax incentives as well.

Generally, it's not cost-effective to convert an older vehicle to natural gas unless it has lots of mileage left and the investment can be recouped through fuel savings. If you don't want to make this substantial investment, you might consider purchasing a used NGV. Government agencies use a large number of light-duty NGVs that are often sold after reaching a certain age or mileage. For example, federal agencies' used vehicles can often be found at www.autoauctions.gsa.gov/index.cfm

BMW’s Lightweight Cloth Car

BMW’s Lightweight Cloth Car
by Kate Andrews

Early last week, German giants BMW unveiled the GINA Light Visionary Model, a highly anticipated concept set to transform the boundaries of traditional car design. ‘GINA’, an acronym for “Geometry and Functions In ‘N’ Adaptations”, has a seamless outer skin made entirely from a textile fabric (polyurethane-coated Lycra) pulled taut around a moveable frame of metal and carbon fiber wires. This lightweight design requires far less energy to produce than traditional BMW models and the overall car weight is significantly reduced, making it far more fuel-efficient.

Although GINA does drive it remains, for now, a concept and as Chuck Squatriglia explains has “headed straight for the BMW Museum in Munich.” Chris Bangle, BMW Director of Design justifies the motivations for designing GINA were simply “to challenge existing principles and conventional processes” of car design, and in BMW’s promotional video further discusses the ideas behind this futuristic concept.

With a “quest for sustainability on different levels” (BMW Group, 2008) during the experiment, BMW sought to uncover alternative materials and production methods that favor working with less raw materials and energy, and in last weeks press release explained:

“A minimalist approach to the use of components and production stages yields ecological and economic benefits. As part of our endeavor to create social sustainability, we are looking for production methods that rely on the expertise of highly qualified specialists instead of expensive manufacturing tools. […] With its sensible and careful use of resources for products and their development, the GINA principle contributes to the sustainability of future car generations. After all, the social significance of the GINA philosophy is a product of its heightened application of social aspects both to the development processes and to the conscious reflection of customer requirements.”

What a fantastic example of futuristic design thinking, challenging a new generation of less gas and energy-guzzling automobiles.

+ BMW GINA Light Visionary Model
+ Wired.com (June 2008). BMW Builds a Shape-Shifting Car Out of Cloth.
+ MotorTrend.com: Interview with BMW’s Chris Bangle

Via Autoblog.com

Water is Viable Fuel Technology